California budget deal depends on voters' approvals
By Kevin Yamamura and Amy Chance
Saturday, Feb. 14, 2009
Jeanine Meyer Rodriguez, spokeswoman for the Service Employees International Union State Council, called a spending cap "unconscionable" regardless of any temporary revenue stream, though she said her group has made no decisions about the special election.
Dave Gilliard, a political consultant for GOP legislators, warned that the spending limit might be something of a Trojan horse for Republicans, in which Democrats inserted tax extensions as a poison pill.
"I think this is designed so the spending cap will never pass, and I think the Democrats pulled a fast one on any Republican who votes for this because of the tax element and because of the fact that it's not a real spending cap," Gilliard said.
Several consultants compared the forthcoming special election campaign with the effort Schwarzenegger made in 2004, when he persuaded voters to authorize $15 billion in bonds to cancel state debt and approve what ultimately proved to be a flimsy balanced-budget act.
"That was supposed to change the way we do budgeting forever, that if we just passed Propositions 57 and 58 we'd never have another budget problem," said South, onetime strategist for former Democratic Gov. Gray Davis. "And here we are."
South and other campaign experts said that the current Republican governor used that campaign five years ago to promise voters that they could solve the state's budget woes, but that Schwarzenegger has since lost credibility.
According to the Public Policy Institute poll, only 33 percent of likely voters approve of Schwarzenegger's handling of budgetary and fiscal matters. In February 2004, 55 percent said they approved.
While the 2004 election asked voters to solve a budget problem with bonds, the current plan would seek approval of five separate ballot measures, probably in a June election, to make the budget work.
The Legislature also will ask voters to borrow against future California Lottery revenue and shift money out of special funds for mental health and early childhood development. Voters authorized all three funds in previous elections after proponents said the money would be dedicated to specific areas.
Losing those measures would blow a new $5.8 billion hole in the 2009-10 budget that lawmakers would have to close this summer.
Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders will likely package the three ballot measures with the spending limit and the Proposition 98 change and try to sell it as one end-all solution to California's budget woes.
Schnur said he would expect all five to succeed or fail together.
"The spending cap is going to be the centerpiece initiative on this ballot," Schnur said. "The other four propositions may intensify feelings in one direction or the other, but they're unlikely to change any minds."
Opponents, he said, might just treat it "like a really expensive game of Red Rover. You look for the weakest link to break through and take down everything else at the same time."